The Correlation Between Winnipeg's Seasonal Thaw Cycles and Foundation Ant Infestations: A Hydrogeological Analysis of Spring Pest Migration Patterns
Abstract Winnipeg, Manitoba experiences one of the most severe freeze-thaw cycles in North America, with frost penetration reaching depths of 1.7 to 2.16 meters in Lake Agassiz clay soils. This research examines the correlation between spring thaw events, subsequent soil saturation, and the temporal pattern of carpenter ant ( Camponotus spp.) infestations in residential foundations. During the spring thaw period (late March through May), impermeable frozen subsoil creates a perched water table condition that saturates the upper 15-45 cm of soil, forcing subterranean ant colonies to migrate vertically into structures to escape waterlogged nests. Analysis of meteorological data from Environment and Climate Change Canada, combined with soil hydrology research from the National Research Council, reveals that the combination of ice lens formation during winter, rapid surface thaw, and clay soil impermeability creates predictable conditions that drive ant populations into foundations...